ContrarianCommentary.com leads the media in North Carolina
Andy Martin’s continuing commentary on the North Carolina primary. “Our survey results and predictions on the North Carolina primary were attacked by Obama supporters. But a new poll confirms our cutting-edge analysis,” says Executive editor Andy Martin. “In 2008, we are #1.”
“Factually Correct, Not
AMERICA’S #1 POLITICAL
BLOG ON THE 2008 CAMPAIGN
CONTRARIANCOMMENTARY.COM SCOOPS EVERYONE—AGAIN
OUR NORTH CAROLINA/INDIANA PREDICTIONS BEAT EVERYONE
(NEW YORK)(May 1) On Monday, April 28th we predicted Hillary Clinton would win both the Indiana and North Carolina primaries and throw the Democratic Party’s presidential race up for grabs. We explained why. And we provided our projected margins as of the 28th. They could change.
Take a look at our earlier story:
In response, we received threatening phone calls from Senator Barack Obama’s North Carolina supporters, as well as nasty e-mails from the Obama camp suggesting we were, well, forget it.
Wednesday evening, April 30th, a new poll also projected Clinton as the winner in North Carolina:
The InsiderAdvantage poll was tentative, but confirmed the trend we had first announced two days earlier.
Of course, we made our survey results known before Senator Obama denounced Reverend Jeremiah Wright on Tuesday afternoon (29th).
That’s why we claim to be #1.
We will have more to say about North Carolina in the days ahead. And Indiana is not being forgotten either.
“There is a fundamental fallacy which media pundits and political ‘advisers’ who appear on TV have stated over and over again,” says Andy Martin: “that the primary elections are over, that Senator Barack Obama has won, and that Clinton will be forced from the race shortly after June 3rd. We believe these comments which have saturated the media are fundamentally misinformed.
“We believe that the ‘herd instinct’ is going to undo ‘pledged delegates’ chosen in the snows of Iowa if Obama keeps losing primaries in May and June. He does indeed have a lead in pledged delegates today. But that lead will evaporate if he starts losing momentum. While ‘momentum’ is a trite phrase, momentum is still the key to understanding the current primary contest. Right now, Clinton has the momentum; Obama is losing momentum. If this trend continues, Obama’s lead in pledged delegates will not matter when the fat lady sings in June.
“Our dynamic analysis does not treat ‘old’ delegates equally with ‘new’ delegates or ‘old primaries’ equally with ‘new primaries’. That analytical approach is fundamentally flawed, for reasons which we explained on the 28th based on our 42 years of survey research experience. The political arena simply does not work that way.
“I do not expect Senator Obama to withdraw. I do not think Senator Clinton should withdraw. That is why I alone among media analysts told Hillary to ‘take it to the convention,’ on February 20th, and why I alone have held a positive view of her campaign’s potential. This was at a time when the media and Democratic ‘leaders’ were demanding that Clinton surrender.
“We are even evaluating alternative scenarios for the Democratic Convention.
“I have the highest respect for those who disagree with me, starting with Dick Morris on Fox News. But while they are very able analysts, the dynamics of the 2008 race defy description based on past electoral experience. We have consistently demonstrated the most sensitive antennae in this campaign. We continue to fine tune our radar.
“When Hannity & Colmes launched their cable show 12 years ago, I was an occasional guest/expert on the program during the first year. A review of my pronouncements and predictions then shows we were consistently right. Likewise, I volunteered some coverage as a favor to Fox News when the network was starting up. My contributions then have also stood the test of time. I have not had any recent association with FNC. I have been associated with cable news since the dawn of talk television. We have a rather unblemished track record accuracy and impartiality. And we are still at it, as our cutting edge pronouncements on the ‘Return of Hillary’ have shown.
“And now you know why they call us ‘contrarian’ commentary.”
COMING BEFORE MAY 6TH: A MORE SEASONED ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BARACK OBAMA AND WILLIAM AYERS
We’re not always first because we are #1;
We’re #1 because we are always first.
Andy Martin, Chicago’s #1 Internet columnist, broadcaster and media critic, is the Executive Editor and publisher of http://www.ContrarianCommentary.com. © Copyright by Andy Martin 2008. Martin covers regional, national and world events with more than forty years of experience. He is a chronicler of all things Midwestern and the authentic Voice of Middle America. He holds a Juris Doctor degree from the University of Illinois College of Law. He has been a candidate for U. S. Senator from Illinois. http://www.AndyforUSSenator.com. Comments? E-mail: AndyMart20@aol.com. Media contact: (866) 706-2639. Columns also posted at ContrarianCommentary.blogspot.com; contrariancommentary.wordpress.com. [Editing note: we make typos, and we can’t recall every posting or e-mail; but updated versions are usually found on our blogs and web site.]