Foreign policy and Afghanistan expert Andy Martin says that President Obama’s decision to remove General McChrystal is understandable, if unwise. But the net effect is to saddle Obama with full responsibility for an unwinnable war that is going to drive the Democratic Party into Hillary Clinton’s hands in 2012. Martin’s “McChrystal ball” predicts that Obama’s political decline, and Clinton’s corresponding rise, can be measured from today.
Internet powerhouse Andy Martin with his surprising political analysis of the McChrystal shakeup
Andy Martin’s “McChrystal ball” says Hillary Clinton wins big as the general loses his command
ContrarianCommentary.com
“The Internet Powerhouse”
Andy Martin
Executive Editor
“Factually Correct, Not Politically Correct”
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Andy Martin says “Today is the start of the Hillary Clinton for President campaign”
Martin says Obama has now assumed complete ownership of a failed military strategy, and that the real beneficiary of his decision to remove Stanley McChrystal will be Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
(NEW YORK)(June 23, 2010) I first went to Afghanistan exactly thirty years ago, in 1980, to link up with the anti-Soviet Mujahideen. One of my closest associates, an Afghan native, was later killed by the Northern Alliance. Afghanistan has been on my stove, sometimes on a front burner, sometimes on a back one, for over three decades.
Earlier today I posted a column that suggested President Obama should not fire General McChrystal. Getting rid of McChrystal was the easy way out. But the easy out today will doom Obama’s presidency in 2011-2012.
While the cable TV bobbleheads, most of whom have never been to Asia, cackle on about Obama and “civilian control of the military,” which was never even remotely a concern with General McChrystal, I am going to provide you with the type of insight that formed the core of my bestselling book, “Obama: the Man Behind the Mask.”
The big winner today: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
I will write later in greater detail about why our strategy in Afghanistan is a failed approach. But anyone reading today’s papers and watching today’s “analysis” knows “Obama’s War” is doomed. As I said earlier today, while I supported General McChrystal as a loyal officer, I believe Vice President Joe Biden was right on the policy.
Can General David Petraeus now save Obama’s flawed policy? That is doubtful. Petraeus may also take a hit as a result of today’s shift in command. Petraeus came out of Iraq as a hero, and he has been supervising our Central Command since then. He is a competent officer. But even a military genius can’t rescue a failed strategy. My guess is that Petraeus’ star will also be tarnished. I would not be surprised to see Petraeus retire in January. He may hang on, but he may decide to hit the silk and get out before July, 2011.
So why is Clinton a winner? No one has mentioned her in any of the news analysis today. Why am I out there alone?
Most “analysts” on cable TV are not analysts at all. They are parrots who are told to respond to the immediate issue. They have never engaged in long-term strategic thinking and political analysis.
Clinton was the only member of Obama’s team that was not criticized in the Rolling Stone article. She has been an outstanding team member because she follows orders and does what she is told. And she obviously knows better than to have a reporter join her entourage.
The July, 2011 withdrawal date which was agreed on as Obama’s “policy” last year was a compromise between the “McChrystal Plan” and the “Biden Plan.” Biden lost the strategic debate, and he was rewarded with the consolation prize of a withdrawal date that is illusory.
McChrystal may have been the one who got fired today, but the more interesting battle took place last weekend when Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said the July, 2011 date was flexible. The result: there will be a rigid “withdrawal” in July, 2011, but the army will be retreating, not leaving after a victorious campaign. Gates contradicted Biden. Both of them are civilians:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38779.html
Where does this leave Obama? The left is restive. Obama is drifting. Congress will be in the hands of the Republicans. Normally dropping a president after one term would be disastrous for a political party. Hillary Clinton is the only person with the stature to replace Obama as a presidential candidate without causing a Democratic Party meltdown. Clinton may not be able to win the White House, but she will be the only Democrat who can revive a party tainted by Obama’s incompetence and hubris.
When this columns ends up on Hillary Clinton’s desk, as inevitably it will, her reaction? “Dang,” she’s going to say. “Andy again. He almost perfectly timed my resurgence during the 2008 campaign. How does he do it?” In 2008, Clinton started to fight back against the Kenyan pipsqueak, but it was too late. This time around, the McChrystal decision makes it clear that it is too late to save Barack Obama.
Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party’s nominee in 2012.
———————————-
ABOUT ANDY: Andy Martin is the legendary New York and Chicago-based muckraker, author, Internet columnist, radio talk show host, broadcaster and media critic. He has over forty years of broadcasting background in radio and television and is the dean of Illinois media and communications. He is currently promoting his best-selling book, “Obama: The Man Behind The Mask” and his Internet movie “Obama: The Hawai’i years.” Martin has been a leading corruption fighter in Illinois for over forty years. He is currently sponsoring www.AmericaisReadyforReform.com
Andy is the Executive Editor and publisher of the “Internet Powerhouse,” www.ContrarianCommentary.com. He comments on regional, national and world events with more than four decades of investigative experience. He holds a Juris Doctor degree from the University of Illinois College of Law and is a former adjunct professor of law at the City University of New York (LaGuardia CC, Bronx CC).
UPDATES:
www.twitter.com/AndyMartinUSA
www.facebook.com/AndyMartin
Andy’s columns are also posted at ContrarianCommentary.blogspot.com; contrariancommentary.wordpress.com.
contrariancommentary.typepad.com
[NOTE: We try to correct any typographical errors in this story on our blogs; find our latest edition there.]
MEDIA CONTACT: (866) 706-2639 or CELL (917) 664-9329
E-MAIL: AndyMart20@aol.com
© Copyright by Andy Martin 2010
Andy Martin: The Cold War is back in vogue
June 30, 2010Andy Martin says that Russian spy rings, coded messages, Mata Hari agents, lavish living and “non-official cover” herald a return to the glory days of the Cold War. “Anna Chapman” will be 33 years old by the time she hits the streets; will we trade “our” Russkie prisoners for some of theirs? Will the Reds grab someone to use as trading bait? Are “Law and Order” actors standing by to make the movie, on location in New York? Stay tuned.
Internet powerhouse Andy Martin remembers growing up during the Cold War
ContrarianCommentary.com
“The Internet Powerhouse”
Andy Martin
Executive Editor
“Factually Correct, Not Politically Correct”
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Andy Martin says the arrest of a “Russian spy ring” in New York does not mean we are heading back into a new Cold War
But Andy reminisces on what a fascinating era the Cold War really was
(NEW YORK)(June 30, 2010) Going from my sophomore to my junior year in college I had a problem. How could I tell my ROTC officers I had no interest in being a pilot? One officer, Major J. D. Faulk, had been a Korean War fighter pilot. He wanted to see me in the cockpit. I was rated “1-P” for potential pilot training.
But I had grown up in a family where he clandestine operations were the rule, not the uniformed services. I had studied the day-to-day progress of the French Indochina War. I was heartbroken when Dien Bien Phu fell. At a time when a lot of my contemporaries were practicing their batting stance for Little League, I was studying the mysterious “CIA.”
When my family moved to London and then Oxford, I learned about the Hungarian Revolution, from those who had escaped.
I met my first Russian spies over forty years ago. In Vientiane, Laos. Although the CIA operated a “secret army” in Laos, the military operations were no secret to the Russkies (as we then called them). Vientiane was possibly the “Casablanca” of the Viet-Nam era. Everyone was there. And even the U. S. ambassador to Laos, William Sullivan, was a spymaster. There was even a very low key American “village” in Vientiane, Kilometer 6, where more than a few spooks kicked back at cocktail hour.
The Cold War indeed was “something else.” The fear of war, the prospect of war, the preparation for war overshadowed everything. And then there was Viet-Nam. Viet-Nam was the realization of all of our fears. And the creation of new ones. It’s hard to believe now, but over 200 Americans were dying a week during the fiercest fighting.
One of the most interesting operations of the Viet-Nam war was the effort to spy on North and South Vietnamese spies who had infiltrated the local media. How to find them? Use a pigeon.
Many of my contemporaries had focused on Europe and the threat from the “east.” They ended up in Germany.
I was fascinated by China and eventually studied Chinese. When I landed in Hong Kong I fell in love with the place. My apartment was a short walk from the Hong Kong Hilton (since demolished), where everyone on the island met at some point during the week. The “Suzie Wong” area of Hong Kong (Wanchai) was still seedy and dangerous. Today it’s another version of “restaurant row.”
The Communist Chinese (or “Chicoms”), of course, were “inscrutable,” while the Russkies were merely bullies, maybe even thugs.
During the Cold War there really were “secrets.” Spy satellites had not yet been invented. And the U-2 had not yet been shot down. People actually had to go in, mooch about and look-see. And get out alive.
I was only a second generation cold warrior. It was our World War II parents who were “present at the creation” of the Cold War. Security concerns were everywhere. My mother worked with someone who was distantly related to the “atom spy” Rosenbergs. There was no “clearance” for anyone however remotely related to the R’bergs. “Keep an eye on her.”
The way it was explained to me, spying and special operations was almost a family business. My father had been in special ops; his father had been a spy. My mother’s grandfather was a double agent. My mother had worked for an intelligence agency. After listening to stories about spies and clandestine operations, who wanted to sit in a cockpit?
Spying and intelligence operations are among the most dangerous national security activities. A solider, sailor or airman always knows when he (she) is in uniform, that uniform and a team will protect him. A CIA “case officer” is usually attached to a diplomatic mission under a title such as “State Department—agricultural research liaison” or something like that. They enjoy diplomatic immunity. Risky business, but not too risky.
And then there are the people who are “out there.” Officially, they are called working under “non-official cover” or “NOC.” In reality, if someone working NOC gets caught, they’re caught. Or worse. One of the reasons the Valerie Plame controversy became such a serious issue in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq invasion was that Plame had worked NOC. Exposing who Plame was also exposed everyone she had ever stopped to have a cup of coffee with. When Plame was “outed,” others were automatically endangered.
And now we come to this week’s “New York Russian spy ring.” Since the nation of Russia is unofficially led by a former KGB spy, Vladimir Putin, and Putin in turn has saturated his government with a platoon of retired “spooks,” what do you expect? Once a spook, always a spook. If anyone believes in spies, Putin does. And, of course, he immediately denied that there were any Russian spies in New York. Who? Me? Spies? Who are they? “Comrade, we have no spies in America.”
The Russian spy ring (we can’t call them a “Soviet” spy ring because the Soviet Union no longer exists) is an example of both classic “burrowing” and NOC. The spies lived openly, although at least one of them apparently had a stolen identify from a deceased Canadian. At least the Russkies were smarter than the Israelis, who recently committed a murder in Dubai and used “secret” agents who were using stolen identities of living people. Not too smart.
The New York spies seem to have been burrowing. You “burrow” when you slowly blend in to the background, when you become part of your surroundings, when there is nothing to do but do nothing. Maybe watch the grass grow. And wait for the day when you are activated. Great Britain’s MI6 used to be the master of burrowing. British spies always blended into the background. 6’ers would also be NOC. MI6 spied on the Nazis, in New York, before World War II.
The bottom line: governments will always spy on each other, sometimes in the open, sometimes clandestinely. Friends spy on friends. We spy on the Israelis, and they spy on us. Sometimes we catch them. Jonathan Pollard has spent 30 years in jail because he was bribed by Israel to spy against the United States. Why would we not expect the Russians to plant a spy or two under NOC? We put spies in our embassies. And of course we put spies out on the street. Alone. NOC.
Spymasters have learned through bitter experience that when you don’t spy, you end up in a jam. The Shah of Iran did not allow the CIA to operate in Iran. Foolishly, in large part we obeyed his demand. When Iran fell, there was no clandestine operation to activate. There was nothing. We had to start from scratch.
The only good thing about the Russian spy ring in New York? The movie can be filmed on location. “Law and Order” actors are standing by. And “Anna Chapman” is a pretty attractive “Natasha.” It’s enough to make you want to be compromised. Martinis anyone?
————————————-
ABOUT ANDY: Andy Martin is the legendary New York and Chicago-based muckraker, author, Internet columnist, radio talk show host, broadcaster and media critic. He has over forty years of broadcasting background in radio and television and is the dean of Illinois media and communications. He is currently promoting his best-selling book, “Obama: The Man Behind The Mask” and his Internet movie “Obama: The Hawai’i years.” Martin has been a leading corruption fighter in Illinois for over forty years. He is currently sponsoring www.AmericaisReadyforReform.com
Andy is the Executive Editor and publisher of the “Internet Powerhouse,” www.ContrarianCommentary.com. He comments on regional, national and world events with more than four decades of investigative and overseas experience. He holds a Juris Doctor degree from the University of Illinois College of Law and is a former adjunct professor of law at the City University of New York (LaGuardia CC, Bronx CC).
UPDATES:
www.twitter.com/AndyMartinUSA
www.facebook.com/AndyMartin
Andy’s columns are also posted at ContrarianCommentary.blogspot.com; contrariancommentary.wordpress.com.
contrariancommentary.typepad.com
[NOTE: We try to correct any typographical errors in this story on our blogs; find our latest edition there.]
MEDIA CONTACT: (866) 706-2639 or CELL (917) 664-9329
E-MAIL: AndyMart20@aol.com
© Copyright by Andy Martin 2010
Tags:Andy Martin, Cold War, ContrarianCommentary.com, MI6, New York spy ring, Russian spies
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »