Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina, Indiana
Andy Martin predicts Clinton wins in North Carolina, Indiana. Barack Obama’s support could erode, implode if he loses on May 6th. Martin says he will lose both states, Indiana by a solid Clinton margin and North Carolina to HRC in a squeaker.
“Factually Correct, Not
AMERICA’S #1 POLITICAL
BLOG ON THE 2008 CAMPAIGN
WE PREDICT CLINTON WINS BOTH NORTH CAROLINA AND INDIANA,
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL RACE UP FOR GRABS ON MAY 7TH
POSSIBLE OBAMA “IMPLOSION” APPEARS ON THE HORIZON
(NEW YORK)(April 29) We promised a story on our research in Indiana and North Carolina for last Friday. When the results showed Senator Clinton winning both states, we held the story and did more analysis. And, frankly, we have to get Indiana right. That is where my broadcast career began forty years ago in 1968.
Hillary Clinton still wins both states. We predict that on May 6th she will win a solid victory in Indiana and a close decision in North Carolina.
The Obama campaign has been in a backward-looking mode since February. But the race which has developed in April and May is essentially a new campaign.
Dan Balz of the Washington Post says Obama “needs a pair of victories next week in Indiana and North Carolina to kick-start his candidacy…The last thing Obama should want is to back into the nomination.” http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/04/28/for_obama_wright_the_latest_in.html
Obama is not going to get the wins he is expecting. The trend line is moving strongly against him.
If we are correct and Obama loses both Indiana and North Carolina, his candidacy could begin to implode in the remaining primaries, leaving a virtual free-for-all at the close of the primary season in June. DNC National Chairman Howard Dean’s demand for prompt “action” on a nominee appears increasingly impractical and unrealistic.
ContrarianCommentary.com called the real “turn of the tide” for Senator Clinton on February 20th when we told her to stay in the race and “take it to the convention.” http://www.contrariancommentary.com/community/Home/tabid/36/mid/363/newsid363/161/Default.aspx
Our predictions were also on the winning side on March 4th and April 22nd. Thus we feel our methodology is providing solid results. Our research was the first media analysis to highlight the “Myth of the Two Democrats,” on February 20th.
Unlike mainstream media, we do not use traditional polling techniques. Instead, we employ proprietary analysis that we first developed as part of a senior thesis at the Bureau of Economics and Business Research of the University of Illinois.
The polarization which was evident in Pennsylvania is increasing in North Carolina and Indiana. Senator Obama’s percentage share of the vote has peaked in North Carolina and has begun to decline. The impression that Senator Clinton is a viable candidate has given voters an incentive to take a second look at her. We see her recent financial success as an indication she will be competitive in both states.
Conclusion: If Clinton wins both states as we predict, the Democratic Party’s presidential race is going to be up for grabs. Clinton could sweep or come close in the remaining primaries.
There are two fallacies to the “inevitably” arguments of Senator Obama and his supporters: first, many of his delegates were collected at a time when the campaign was still a multi-candidate race. He has been notably unsuccessful in the one-on-one campaign against Senator Clinton. Second, “stale” results from January and February are going to be overshadowed by the fresh tallies in May and June. The Party is going to be reluctant to nominate a candidate who has been in decline since February.
Obama began a basketball-style “stall” tactic in early February, seeking to protect his lead. The result has been precisely the opposite. The attempt to defend, rather than attack, has undermined his candidacy and campaign when confronted by the vigorous and relentless counterattacks of Hillary Clinton. Thus, while Dan Balz suggests Obama does not want to “back into” his party’s nomination, that is unlikely. Rather than being backed in, he is likely to be rejected as the candidate who blew a substantial lead and lacked the “fire in the belly” to confront the Republican candidate.
As of April 29th, our predictions for May 6th: Indiana, Clinton 55%; North Carolina, Clinton 51%.
Chicago’s #1 Internet columnist, broadcaster and media critic, Andy Martin, is the Executive Editor and publisher of http://www.ContrarianCommentary.com. © Copyright by Andy Martin 2008. Martin covers regional, national and world events with more than forty years of experience. He is a chronicler of all things Midwestern and the authentic Voice of Middle America. He holds a Juris Doctor degree from the University of Illinois College of Law. He has been a candidate for U. S. Senator from Illinois. http://www.AndyforUSSenator.com. Comments? E-mail: AndyMart20@aol.com. Media contact: (866) 706-2639. Columns also posted at ContrarianCommentary.blogspot.com; contrariancommentary.wordpress.com. [Editing note: we make typos, and we can’t recall every posting or e-mail; but updated versions are usually found on our blogs and web site.]